Imagine a country where the population is decreasing every year. The birth rate is steadily declining, and deaths are increasing. Young people are leaving abroad in search of a better life and jobs. This is the situation in Poland. Recently, the Polish Government Statistical Office (GUS) reported that the country’s population has decreased by 158,000 people over the past year, to approximately 37.38 million. This is not just a statistic, but a matter of concern for the entire society.
The meaning of population decline
Population is easy to measure: births + new arrivals – deaths – people leaving the country. In Poland, births are decreasing, deaths are increasing, and young people are leaving abroad. At the same time, new arrivals are not enough to make up for the loss. The GUS report shows that the population decreased by 0.30% in the first three quarters of 2025. This means that 30 people per 10,000 people have died. This decline has been ongoing for a long time.
Birth Rate at Lowest Level
Only 181,000 children were born from January to September 2025, 11,000 fewer than the previous year. The birth rate has fallen by 6.5%. Experts consider this the lowest birth rate in history.
Why is the fertility rate falling?
Poland’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.11. This means that a woman is giving birth to only 1.11 children on average in her lifetime. For a stable population, this rate should be at least 2.1. Young people are postponing marriage and having fewer children. Inflation, job insecurity, and the pandemic have further forced this decision. In 2024, the average age for first-time mothers will be 29.1 years, compared to 22.7 in 1990. This clearly indicates that the number of women capable of childbearing is also declining.
History and Current Situation
In 1989, Poland’s population was 40 million. Since then, it has been steadily declining. Low birth rates, an aging population, and migration are accelerating this decline. GUS has described this as “worrying” and warned that if this trend continues, the country could face serious social and economic challenges.
Economic and Social Impact
Population decline directly impacts the economy. A younger population will reduce the workforce, increasing pressure on the pension system and increasing the burden on healthcare. The government has implemented policies to increase the birth rate, but their impact appears to be limited.
Poland’s declining population is not just a statistic. It is the result of changing lifestyles, economic pressures, and social change. If timely measures are not taken, the country could face a severe demographic crisis in the coming years.